张培霄, 尹晓红, 李少远, 王新立. 基于VMD-CNN-LSTM的农业大棚园区用电负荷短期预测[J]. 信息与控制, 2024, 53(2): 238-249. DOI: 10.13976/j.cnki.xk.2024.3021
引用本文: 张培霄, 尹晓红, 李少远, 王新立. 基于VMD-CNN-LSTM的农业大棚园区用电负荷短期预测[J]. 信息与控制, 2024, 53(2): 238-249. DOI: 10.13976/j.cnki.xk.2024.3021
ZHANG Peixiao, YIN Xiaohong, LI Shaoyuan, WANG Xinli. The Short-term Forecasting of Power Load in Agricultural Greenhouses Based on VMD-CNN-LSTM[J]. INFORMATION AND CONTROL, 2024, 53(2): 238-249. DOI: 10.13976/j.cnki.xk.2024.3021
Citation: ZHANG Peixiao, YIN Xiaohong, LI Shaoyuan, WANG Xinli. The Short-term Forecasting of Power Load in Agricultural Greenhouses Based on VMD-CNN-LSTM[J]. INFORMATION AND CONTROL, 2024, 53(2): 238-249. DOI: 10.13976/j.cnki.xk.2024.3021

基于VMD-CNN-LSTM的农业大棚园区用电负荷短期预测

The Short-term Forecasting of Power Load in Agricultural Greenhouses Based on VMD-CNN-LSTM

  • 摘要: 针对农业大棚用电负荷受农村供电能力、气象因素等的影响, 具有强波动性和高非线性的问题, 综合大棚短期负荷的气象特征和时序特征, 提出了一种基于变分模态分解(variational mode decomposition, VMD)的长短期记忆(long short-term memory, LSTM)网络与卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network, CNN)相融合的VMD-CNN-LSTM的短期负荷预测模型架构。首先, 基于VMD方法分解负荷序列, 降低负荷波动性; 其次, 采用CNN方法提取负荷的气象特征, 采用LSTM方法提取负荷时序特征, 进行负荷分量预测, 并将模态分量的预测结果重构; 最后, 以山东省寿光市农业大棚负荷数据为基础开展仿真实验。结果表明, VMD-CNN-LSTM模型与传统神经网络模型相比, 可有效提高农业大棚短期负荷预测的精度。

     

    Abstract: Based on the meteorological and temporal characteristics of short-term load in greenhouses, an integrated short-term load prediction architecture based on the fusion of variational mode decomposition (VMD), convolutional neural network (CNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed to solve the problem that the electricity load of agricultural greenhouses is affected by rural power supply capacity and meteorological factors, which have strong fluctuation and high nonlinear characteristics. First, the load sequence is decomposed using the VMD method to reduce load volatility. Second, the meteorological characteristics of the load are extracted using the CNN method, and the temporal characteristics of the load are extracted using the LSTM method. Component prediction is performed, and the prediction results of the model components are reconstructed. Finally, based on the load data of agricultural greenhouses in Shouguang, Shandong Province, the experimental results show that compared with the traditional neural network model, the proposed VMD-CNN-LSTM model can effectively improve the precision of short-term load prediction of agricultural greenhouses.

     

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