基于延误波及的航班延误状态空间模型

A Flight Delay State-Space Model Based on Delay Propagation

  • 摘要: 为了将动态数据驱动的方法用于航班延误实时预测,在对单机多任务延误事件中的航班延误波及影响进行分析的基础上, 创建了一种航班延误状态空间模型来表示延误状态之间、延误状态与随机延误之间的关系,并对其中的随机延误变量进行了重点建模. 在历史航班运行数据集上,采用最大期望算法对模型参数进行了最大似然估计,并在不同概率区间上对模型实例进行了检验. 检验结果表明,所提出的航班延误状态空间模型具有较好的泛化能力.

     

    Abstract: To apply the dynamic data-driven approach to the real-time prediction of flight delay, a state-space model of flight delay with the focus on the modeling of the variable of random delay is established based on analysis of the flight delay propagation effect in delay event sequence of a multi-task single flight, in order to represent the relationships among delay states as well as those between delay state and the random delay. Then case study is carried out on historical flight delay data. Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to calculating the maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters, and the model is validated by probability intervals test on different instances. Test results show that the proposed state-space model of flight delay has good generalization performance.

     

/

返回文章
返回