用最优控制方法探讨我国的最优积累率

Optimal Control Theory Based Optimal Accumulating Rate for China

  • 摘要: 本文根据经济规律建立了一个国民收入与积累率的简化动态模型,并利用最优控制理论中的最大值原理,求出了各种不同经济目标下的最优积累率:(1)从强调经济发展速度考虑,最优积累率应约为25.3%;(2)无论何种经济目标,积累率的合理取值应在21.3~33.7%的范围之内;(3)单纯强调多积累时,积累率取值应逐年增加,但不能超过33.7%;(4)单纯强调多消费时,积累率取值应逐年减少,但不能低于21.3%(5)综合考虑积累、消费和国民经济发展速度的整体效果,积累率取值范围应在23%~28%之间,以25.5%左右为宜.

     

    Abstract: A Simplified dynamic model of relations between accumlating rate and national economy is established depending on the general economic principle.The model issolved by using the maxima principle of control theory and giving accordingly a set of optimal accumulating rates for various economic goals.It includes that (1) the optimal accumulting rate should be about 25.3%,if a rapid economic growth is the primary consideration;(2)the reasonable figures of accumulating rates should be always in the range of 23.3%~33.7%,whichever economical goal may be;(3)the accumulating rates should be assured to increase per annum with the appropriate figure at 29%,and the upper limit at 33.7%,if higher accumulating rate is the basic concern;(4)the accumulating rates should be assured to decrease per annum,withthe appropriate figure at about 23% and the lower limit at 21.3%,if higher comsumption is emphasized;(5)as a comprehensive trade-off among accumulating,comsumption and economic growth rates,the moderate accumulating rate should be inthe range of 23%~28%,the figure of 25.5% recommended.

     

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