基于混沌理论的交通量实时预测

Prediction of Traffic Flow in Real-time Based on Chaos Theory

  • 摘要: 分析了城市交通的混沌性,根据复杂的城市交通特点,引入了误差反馈系数,改进了混沌时间序列预测方法中的加权一阶局域法和基于最大Lyapunov指数的预测法,并将其成功应用于实时交通量预测.预测结果表明:这两种改进的方法都能较准确地预测交通量,但后者比前者更适合交通量预测,后者的预测误差一般可以控制在5%以下.

     

    Abstract: The chaotic characteristics of urban traffic are analyzed, and the error feedback coefficient is introduced to improve one-rank local-region method of chaotic time series prediction methods and the forecasting method based upon the largest Lyapunov exponents. Both of the two improved methods are successfully used in real-time prediction of traffic flow. The results show that the two forecasting methods can be used in the prediction of traffic flow with considerably high accuracy, and the improved forecasting method based on the largest Lyapunov exponents is more suitable for forecasting traffic flow.

     

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