基于大语言模型的综合能源系统负荷预测方法

Large Language Model-Assisted Load Forecasting Methods for Integrated Energy Systems

  • 摘要: 本文针对综合能源系统多能负荷预测中特征耦合复杂、冗余信息影响预测精度的问题,提出一种基于预训练大语言模型的负荷预测方法。该方法以Time-LLM为基础,冻结大语言模型主体参数,设计通道-时间自适应特征选择器、多准则相关-冗余筛选器和多通道提示词前缀模块,分别实现局部动态特征加权、全局相关冗余筛选和统计提示增强。基于美国亚利桑那大学综合能源数据集的实验结果表明,相较于Time-LLM,所提方法在电、冷、热负荷预测中的MAE分别降低8.06%、6.73%和8.93%,RMSE分别降低5.98%、7.10%和5.31%。结果说明,所提方法能够提高多能负荷预测精度,并具有较好的稳定性。

     

    Abstract: To address the problems of complex feature coupling and redundant information affecting prediction accuracy in multi-energy load forecasting for integrated energy systems, this paper proposes a load forecasting method based on a pretrained large language model. Based on Time-LLM, the proposed method freezes the main parameters of the large language model and designs a channel-time adaptive feature selector, a multi-criterion correlation-redundancy filter, and a multi-channel prompt prefix module to achieve local dynamic feature weighting, global correlation-redundancy filtering, and statistical prompt enhancement, respectively. Experimental results on the Arizona State University integrated energy dataset show that, compared with Time-LLM, the proposed method reduces the MAE by 8.06%, 6.73%, and 8.93%, and the RMSE by 5.98%, 7.10%, and 5.31% for electricity, cooling, and heating load forecasting, respectively. The results indicate that the proposed method can improve the accuracy of multi-energy load forecasting and exhibits good stability.

     

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