基于信任的人-AI群体协同决策共识达成方法

Trust-based Human-AI Collective Collaborative Decision-making Consensus Reaching Method

  • 摘要: 为解决重大事件应急决策存在的单纯依赖人工研判难以完成多源信息整合与一致意见收敛等问题,探索了引入大语言模型(large language model, LLM)的人-AI群体协同决策共识达成方法。基于信任对群体偏好的影响,提出了一个动态的人-AI信任测度框架,融合初始信任与动态信任构建人-AI混合评价模型,突破现有研究仅以LLM为辅助的局限,发挥人工智能与人类智能优势。结合人与AI的信任水平与专家共识状态进行子群体划分,并建立差异化的意见管理机制,通过反馈式意见修正与权重迭代提升整体共识水平。最后,基于中国南方持续高温干旱案例表明,相较于基线方法,本方法的共识达成迭代轮次减少了33.3%,专家意见调整总幅度降低了69.5%,方案排序匹配度提升了13.8%。该研究为破解重大事件应急决策中人-AI协同难题提供了参考。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenges in emergency decision-making for major incidents, where relying solely on human judgment makes it difficult to integrate multi-source information and converge opinions to reach a consensus, this study explores a human-AI collaborative consensus-reaching method for group decision-making by introducing large language models (LLMs). Based on the influence of trust on group preferences, a dynamic human-AI trust measurement framework is proposed. It integrates initial trust and dynamic trust to construct a human-machine hybrid evaluation model, overcoming the limitation of existing studies that only use LLMs as assistants, and leveraging the strengths of both artificial and human intelligence. Subgroup division is carried out by combining human-AI trust levels and expert consensus status, and a differentiated opinion management mechanism is established. The overall consensus level is improved through feedback-based opinion revision and weight iteration. Finally, using the case of persistent high-temperature and drought in southern China, it is shown that compared with baseline methods, the proposed approach reduces the number of consensus-reaching iteration rounds by 33.3%, lowers the total range of expert opinion adjustments by 69.5%, and increases the matching degree of solution rankings by 13.8%. This study provides a reference for solving the human-AI collaboration challenges in emergency decision-making for major incidents.

     

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