基于参数辨识的短期4D航迹预测

徐琴; 汤新民; 韩松臣; 卢奕羽

doi:10.13976/j.cnki.xk.2014.0501

基于参数辨识的短期4D航迹预测

南京航空航天大学民航学院, 江苏南京 210016

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金自助项目（61174180）；江苏省自然科学基金资助项目（BK2010502）；江苏省学研联合创新基金资助项目（BY2012014）；南京航空航天大学研究生创新基地（实验室）开放基金资助项目（kfjj120218）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目

详细信息

作者简介:
徐琴（1988-），女，硕士生．研究领域为新一代空中交通管制自动化系统等．
汤新民（1979-），男，博士，副教授．研究领域为新一代空中交通管理系统，先进场面引导与控制系统等．
韩松臣（1968-），男，博士，教授．研究领域为新一代空中交通管理系统，先进场面引导与控制系统，空域与机场容量与安全性，智能交通与新航行系统技术等．

通讯作者:
徐琴，xuqinnuaa@126.com

中图分类号: V355
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-06-13
- 修回日期: 2013-11-26
- 发布日期: 2014-08-19

Short-Term 4D Trajectory Prediction Based on Parameter Identification

School of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China

摘要

摘要: 由于实际飞行过程中存在许多不确定因素，为保证空中交通的安全和通畅，必须对航空器进行短期4D航迹预测，实时掌握航空器的运行动态．首先建立航空器等速巡航的运动学模型以及等角航迹推测模型，其次利用广播式自动相关监视（ADS-B）接收器采集实时航迹数据，并运用极大似然法则与牛顿-拉夫逊迭代算法对模型中的校正空速进行辨识，最后利用辨识结果及等角航迹推测模型推算航空器的过点时间．实际算例表明，此方法能够准确地预测航空器等速巡航阶段的短期飞行航迹，2 min内航空器过点时间误差可控制在5 s内．
- 短期航迹预测 /
- 运动学模型 /
- 等角航迹 /
- 参数辨识
Abstract: Due to various uncertain factors existed in the actual flight process, short-term 4D trajectory prediction of aircraft must be used to master the real time dynamic operation of the aircraft and ensure the safety and patency of air traffic. We establish the kinematics model of the constant speed cruise phase and the isometric track forecast model of aircraft. In the model, we use Maximum likelihood rule and Newton-Ralph iterative algorithm to identify the calibrated air speed with the real-time track data which are received by ADS-B (automatic dependent surveillance broadcast) receiver. Aircraft short-term trajectory is calculated with the identified result and isometric track forecast model. Case study shows that this method can accurately predict the short flight trajectory of the constant speed cruise phase, and point-passing time error can be controlled within 5 s in 2 min.
- short-term trajectory prediction /
- kinematics model /
- isometric track /
- parameter identification

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参考文献(14)

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基于参数辨识的短期4D航迹预测

通讯作者: 徐琴，xuqinnuaa@126.com

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Short-Term 4D Trajectory Prediction Based on Parameter Identification

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通讯作者:
徐琴，xuqinnuaa@126.com