Abstract: Due to various uncertain factors existed in the actual flight process, short-term 4D trajectory prediction of aircraft must be used to master the real time dynamic operation of the aircraft and ensure the safety and patency of air traffic. We establish the kinematics model of the constant speed cruise phase and the isometric track forecast model of aircraft. In the model, we use Maximum likelihood rule and Newton-Ralph iterative algorithm to identify the calibrated air speed with the real-time track data which are received by ADS-B (automatic dependent surveillance broadcast) receiver. Aircraft short-term trajectory is calculated with the identified result and isometric track forecast model. Case study shows that this method can accurately predict the short flight trajectory of the constant speed cruise phase, and point-passing time error can be controlled within 5 s in 2 min.