基于冲突风险熵和后悔规避的多属性大群体应急决策方法

Multi-attribute Large-group Emergency Decision-making Method for Entropy of Conflict Risks and Regret Aversion

  • 摘要: 针对不确定性多属性大群体应急风险决策问题,提出了一种面向冲突风险熵和后悔规避的大群体应急决策方法.首先考虑决策成员的心理行为,利用后悔理论计算各个方案在不同状态下的感知效用值;其次对决策成员的感知效用矩阵进行聚类,根据聚类结果确定聚集权重和聚集内部成员权重并加以修正;然后针对聚类产生的冲突,基于风险熵计算各决策成员在不同状态下的冲突风险熵,综合感知效用值和冲突风险熵水平对应急方案排序选优.最后,通过一个算例对该方法的有效性和可行性进行了验证.

     

    Abstract: We establish a multi-attribute large-group emergency decision-making method to address the entropy of conflict risks and regret aversion. First, we consider the mental behaviors of decision makers and calculate the perceptible utility values of all emergency plans in light of regret theory. Then, we cluster the perceptible utility matrix of the members and define and correct the weights of each cluster, as well as decision makers accordingly. We prioritize emergency plans in accordance with their perceptible utility values and entropy of conflict risks, the latter of which registers each member's entropy of the conflict risks based on the conflict values of each cluster. Finally, we apply a case study to prove the feasibility and efficiency of the method..

     

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