基于相关性变量筛选偏最小二乘回归的多维相关时间序列建模方法

Modeling Method of Multidimensional Correlation Time Series Based on Correlation Variable Selection Partial Least Squares Regression

  • 摘要: 针对许多领域中的时间序列存在维数过高以及变量间多重相关性严重等问题,提出一种相关性变量筛选偏最小二乘回归(CVS-PLSR)建模算法.该算法通过引入基于相关性的特征选择(CFS)来获取最优特征子集,进而实现数据降维,并选用偏最小二乘回归法(PLSR)作为建模的核心算法,有效地解决了变量间多重相关性带来的危害.使用矿浆元素品位预测数据对所提算法进行验证,改进的CVS-PLSR算法得到的模型最精简,测试集均方根误差仅为1.690 2,预测值与实测值相关性达到了97%以上.通过仿真实验和模型评价指标对比结果可以确定所提算法具有很好的实用性和鲁棒性,所得模型更简化、精度更高.

     

    Abstract: Time series in many fields has the problem of excessively high dimensionality and severe multiple correlations between variables. As such, we propose a correlation variable selection partial least squares regression (CVS-PLSR) modeling algorithm. This algorithm introduces correlation-based feature selection to obtain an optimal feature subset that reduces data dimensionality. To solve the damage caused by multiple correlations between variables effectively, we choose PLSR as the core algorithm for modeling. We verify the proposed algorithm by using pulp element-grade prediction data. The model obtained by the improved CVS-PLSR algorithm is the simplest. The root mean square error of prediction is only 1.690 2, and the correlation between the predicted value and the measured value is over 97%. The simulation and comparison results of the model evaluation index show that the proposed algorithm has good practicability and robustness. The obtained model is more simplified and more accurate than other algorithms.

     

/

返回文章
返回