基于强化学习的电池制造能力可变权组合预测

Variable Weight Combination Forecasting of Battery Manufacturing Capacity Based on Reinforcement Learning

  • 摘要: 针对锂电池制造能力数据具有非线性、非平稳等特性,且现有时间序列预测方法通常陷于局部最优难以保证长期时间序列上的误差稳定的问题,提出了一种基于Q学习(Q-learning)和组合预测方法的电池制造能力可变权组合预测模型。首先,针对电池制造能力数据中包含的复杂特性,采用长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络、门控循环单元(GRU)神经网络和季节性差分自回归滑动平均(SARIMA)模型对历史数据进行学习并预测;其次,引入滑动窗口算法,将完整的时间序列划分为各短序列,更利于挖掘数据特征,并设计Q-learning结合熵值获取最优滑动窗口长度以保证各窗口下的整体预测误差更加稳定;最后,为了完整利用各单一预测模型在不同时间处的预测效果,设计双层强化学习策略,分别对每一个窗口下的不同单一预测结果进行时变赋权,实现最优时变权重组合。工程实例分析表明,所提的三重强化学习可变权组合预测模型能够有效提高锂电池制造能力的预测精度。

     

    Abstract: For the nonlinear and nonstationary characteristics of lithium battery manufacturing capacity data and the difficulty in ensuring the error stability of long-term time series because existing time-series prediction methods typically fall into local optimum, we propose a variable weight combination forcasting model for battery manufacturing capacity based on Q-learning and combination forcasting methods. First, to deal with the complex characteristics of battery manufacturing capacity data, we use a long short-term memory neural network, a gated recurrent unit neural network, and a seasonal differential autoregressive sliding average model to learn and predict historical data. Second, we introduce the sliding window algorithm to divide the complete time series into short sequences, which is more conducive to mining data features, and design Q-learning combined with entropy to obtain the optimal sliding window length to ensure that the overall prediction error under each window is more stable. Finally, to fully utilize the prediction effects of each single prediction algorithm at different times, we design a two-layer reinforcement learning strategy to perform time-varying weighting for different single prediction results under each window, thereby achieving the optimal time-varying weight combination. Engineering example analysis shows that the proposed triple reinforcement learning variable weight combination forcasting algorithm can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of lithium battery manufacturing capacity.

     

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