基于混合神经网络的出水氨氮浓度预测方法

Hybrid Neural Network-Based Prediction Method for Effluent Ammonium Nitrogen Concentration

  • 摘要: 针对城市污水处理过程复杂动态特性导致出水氨氮难以实时精准测量的难题,本文提出了一种基于模糊长短期记忆网络-多项式神经网络(FLSTM-PNN)混合架构的预测方法。首先,构建FLSTM深度融合模型,融合FNN处理不确定性的能力与LSTM时序建模优势,以自适应提取数据中的模糊非线性动态特征;其次,设计2阶段集成建模策略:阶段1采用精英轮盘选择策略(ERWS)筛选出预测性能优异且具有多样性的模型集合,以在保留最优个体的同时有效抑制过拟合;阶段2将优选模型的预测结果作为输入特征,通过多项式神经网络(PNN)进行高阶非线性映射,并再次应用ERWS筛选PNN的最优输出作为最终预测值,以充分挖掘模型间互补特性;最后,基于实际污水处理厂数据验证FLSTM-PNN模型,实验结果表明,所提方法比传统方法有更高的预测精度,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)可达7.52%。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenge of accurate real-time effluent ammonia nitrogen measurement stemming from the complex dynamics of urban wastewater treatment, a prediction method based on a hybrid fuzzy long short-term memory network-polynomial neural network (FLSTM-PNN) architecture is proposed. First, an FLSTM deep fusion model is constructed to integrate the uncertainty-handling capability of FNN with the temporal modeling advantages of LSTM, adaptively extracting fuzzy nonlinear dynamic features. Second, a two-stage ensemble modeling strategy is designed: In Stage I, the Elite Roulette Wheel Selection (ERWS) strategy is employed to screen a diverse set of models with superior predictive performance, effectively suppressing overfitting while retaining optimal individuals; In Stage II, prediction results of the selected models are utilized as input features for high-order nonlinear mapping via polynomial neural network (PNN), and ERWS is reapplied to select the optimal PNN output as the final prediction, fully leveraging complementary characteristics among models. Finally, the FLSTM-PNN model is validated based on real wastewater treatment plant data. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method achieves higher prediction accuracy than traditional methods, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 7.52%.

     

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