基于广义概率和、积模糊神经模型的故障预测方法

Fault Prognosis Method Based on Generalized Probability Sum-Generalized Probability Product Fuzzy Neural Model

  • 摘要: 针对典型的模糊算子缺乏柔性的缺点,将广义概率和(GPS)与广义概率积(GPP)模糊算子引入模糊神经网络,分别代替规则层和输出层的神经元传递函数,通过补偿度参数对算法的逻辑运算强度进行调整,以模拟人类推理思维的灵活性.建立了一种基于GPS-GPP的故障预测模型,推导出了参数训练迭代算法.以轨道电路的故障预测为例对模型进行了仿真验证,并提出了一种基于余切函数的故障可信度到维修时限的映射关系.通过对GPS-GPP和Sum-Prod.的预测结果进行比较,得出GPS-GPP模糊神经模型具有更好的预测精度和泛化能力.

     

    Abstract: For the shortcoming that typical fuzzy operators are lack of flexibility, generalized probability sum (GPS) fuzzy operator and generalized probability product (GPP) fuzzy operator are introducted into fuzzy neural network (FNN). The transfer functions of neurons in rules and output layer are replaced by GPS and GPP, and the strength of logic operation are adjusted using compensation parameters to simulate the flexibility of human thinking. A model based on GPS-GPP FNN for fault prognosis is proposed, the parameter of iterative algorithm is derived for training. The model is simulated track circuit fault prognosis system, and a mapping relationship based on cotangent function between reliability and maintenance date limitation is proposed. Through comparing the prognosis results of GPS-GPP and Sum-Prod., it is proved that the GPS-GPP fuzzy neural model has better accuracy and generalization ability.

     

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