多重分支时间延迟神经网络的混沌预测研究

Study on Chaotic Prediction for Multi-branch Time Delay Neural Network

  • 摘要: 采用新型多重分支时间延迟神经网络进行混沌时间序列预测研究.在网络初始状态和实际系统初始状态不严格相等的情况下,探讨该网络对非线性系统的逼近能力.结合相空间重构理论确定网络结构,使网络能够包含有效的预测信息.文中采用Rossler混沌方程产生的混沌时间序列和实际观测的年太阳黑子时间序列作为实例.仿真表明本文所建网络可成功地应用于混沌系统的建模和预测,而且该方法可以达到较高的精度.

     

    Abstract: A new multi-branch time delay neural network is adopted to conduct prediction research on chaotic time series.In the cases that the initial network states are not strictly equal to those of the practical systems,the approximation ability of this network to nonlinear system is discussed.The structure of the network is defined by integrating the theory of reconstructing phase space,which makes the efficient prediction information be contained in the network.The chaotic time series generated by Rossler chaotic equation and the practically observed yearly sunspot time series are respectively taken as examples.Simulations show that the presented network can be used to model and predict the chaos system successfully,and the method can get a higher precision.

     

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