范伯良, 高峰, 寇鹏. 在线Boosting回归算法及其在高耗能企业负荷预测中的应用[J]. 信息与控制, 2014, 43(6): 750-756. DOI: 10.13976/j.cnki.xk.2014.0750
引用本文: 范伯良, 高峰, 寇鹏. 在线Boosting回归算法及其在高耗能企业负荷预测中的应用[J]. 信息与控制, 2014, 43(6): 750-756. DOI: 10.13976/j.cnki.xk.2014.0750
FAN Boliang, GAO Feng, KOU Peng. Online Boosting Regression Method and Its Application to Load Forecasting in Energy-Intensive Enterprise[J]. INFORMATION AND CONTROL, 2014, 43(6): 750-756. DOI: 10.13976/j.cnki.xk.2014.0750
Citation: FAN Boliang, GAO Feng, KOU Peng. Online Boosting Regression Method and Its Application to Load Forecasting in Energy-Intensive Enterprise[J]. INFORMATION AND CONTROL, 2014, 43(6): 750-756. DOI: 10.13976/j.cnki.xk.2014.0750

在线Boosting回归算法及其在高耗能企业负荷预测中的应用

Online Boosting Regression Method and Its Application to Load Forecasting in Energy-Intensive Enterprise

  • 摘要: 针对高耗能企业的电力负荷预测问题,提出了一种在线Boosting回归算法.该算法首先利用一种几何转换关系,将负荷预测这个回归问题变为2类分类问题;然后,在此分类问题上应用在线Smooth Boosting分类算法,得到实时更新的最大间隔分类面.从理论上证明了该分类面可以作为原回归问题上的一个回归函数,同时证明了该算法在训练集上的收敛性.仿真算例表明,本文算法通过在线更新,提高了预测模型的实时跟踪能力.同时,通过多个预测模型的Boosting组合,有效提高了负荷预测的精度及稳定性,预测误差达到3%以下.

     

    Abstract: Focusing on the electricity load forecasting in energy-intensive enterprises, we propose an online forecasting algorithm based on the boosting method. The algorithm converts a regression problem such as load forecasting to a binary classification problem via geometric operation, and then it obtains a timely adaptive ensemble max-margin separating plane using an online smooth boosting algorithm. We prove that such a plane is theoretically identical to a regression function for the original load forecasting problem, and also prove that the proposed algorithm has convergence for the training set. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm improves real-time tracking capability by implementing online updating, and it improves the accuracy and stability of load forecasting through the boosting algorithm. The forecasting error is less than 3%.

     

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