基于自适应加权最小二乘支持向量机的短期电力负荷预测

Power System Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Adaptive Weighted Least Squares Support Vector Machine

  • 摘要: 针对电力负荷建模过程中数据可能存在异常值及异常值对模型性能的影响,提出一种基于自适应加权最小二乘支持向量机(AWLS-SVM)回归方法的短期电力负荷预测模型.利用改进的正态分布加权规则自适应地为每个建模样本分配不同的权值,并结合粒子群遗传算法对模型参数进行优化选择,以进一步提高模型的预测精度和泛化能力.以北方某城市电网季度负荷数据为例,对模型的性能进行检验.计算结果表明,AWLS-SVM模型在预测精度和泛化能力方面均优于最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)模型及加权最小二乘支持向量机(WLS-SVM)模型.

     

    Abstract: The presence of outliers in load data can corrupt a model's performance, giving undesirable results. In this study, a novel adaptive weighted least squares support vector machine (AWLS-SVM) regression method is proposed for modeling the short-term load forecasting of a power system. An improved normal distribution weighted scheme is used to determine weights for the training samples adaptively. To improve the prediction accuracy and model generalization, the particle swarm optimization genetic algorithm is utilized to obtain optimal model parameters. Furthermore, assuming the seasonal power system load of a northern city, the AWLS-SVM method is applied to test the forecasting performance of the model. The computational results demonstrate that in terms of the prediction accuracy and model generalization, the proposed AWLS-SVM approach is better than conventional LS-SVM and weighted LS-SVM models.

     

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