基于威布尔分布的油田机采井故障率研究

Research on Failure Rate of Pump Recovery Well in Oil Fields Based on the Weibull Distribution

  • 摘要: 针对油田机采井没有确定的故障率函数和最佳预防性检泵周期及检泵策略,提出基于威布尔分布的油田机采井故障率研究. 通过分析检泵周期数据、假设并建立分布模型和运用模糊粒子群—模拟退火(FPSO-SA)算法对分布模型进行参数估计并确定机采井故障率函数. 同时运用模糊决策分析法计算最佳预防性检泵周期,并结合目前机采井检泵策略,确定最佳预防性检泵策略. 该策略对于机采井的检泵具有实际应用价值.

     

    Abstract: In the absence of a certain failure rate function, we propose an optimal preventive pump inspection cycle and inspection strategy for pump recovery wells in oil fields based on theWeibull distribution research on the failure rate of these wells. By analyzing the pump inspection cycle data, we assume and establish a distribution model and utilize the fuzzy particle swarm optimization-simulated annealing algorithm to estimate the parameters of the distribution model and determine the failure rate function of pump recovery wells. In addition, using the fuzzy decision method, we analyze and calculate an optimal preventive pump inspection cycle and combine it with a current pump inspection strategy for pump recovery wells to determine the best preventive pump inspection strategy. This strategy has a practical application value for the pump inspections of pump recovery wells.

     

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