High Precision Predictions of Epidemic Encephalomyelitis in Large Area

Using time series analysis methods,in this paper the prediction model of the epidemic encephalomyelitis in Heilongjiang Province were given.It is shown by practical prediction that the predictions were stable and had higher precision.Some techniques such as weights in month,decaying memory and subtracting month averages from the data were taken to build the model.It was useful to rising the prediction precision.These techniques might be helpful to other applications of the time series analysis method.