A Modification of the Hierarchical Prediction Technique and It's Application

In this paper,the"Hierarchical Prediction Technique"suggested by Z.G.Han ismodified and improved.All aspects,such as selection of stack factors determination ofinitial valuable,processing of nonstationary series,and parameter modeling etc,areconsidered.Also,the confidence regions are given.The modified technique has beentested and used for the seasonly forecasting of the electricity expense of the City of Shanghai and better results than Han's technique were shown.